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Recidivism Rates
(over a 5 year period) |
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Across all studies, the average sex offense recidivism rate (as evidenced by rearrest or reconviction) was 18.9 percent for rapists and 12.7 percent for child molesters over a four to five year period. The rate of recidivism for nonsexual violent offenses was 22.1 percent for rapists and 9.9 percent for child molesters, while the recidivism rate for any reoffense for rapists was 46.2 percent and 36.9 percent for child molesters over a four to five year period. However, as has been noted previously and as these authors warn, one should be cautious in the interpretation of the data as these studies involved a range of methods and follow-up periods.
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Perhaps the greatest advantage of the meta-analysis approach is
in determining the relative importance of various factors across
studies. Using this technique, one can estimate how strongly
certain offender and offense characteristics are related to
recidivism because they show up consistently across different
studies. Using less rigorous evaluation strategies, several
studies have evaluated the outcomes of offenders receiving
sex offender treatment, compared to a group of offenders not
receiving treatment. The results of these studies are mixed.
For example, Barbaree and Marshall (1988) found a substantial
difference in the recidivism rates of extra-familial child
molesters who participated in a community based
cognitive-behavioral treatment program, compared to a group
of similar offenders who did not receive treatment. Those who
participated in treatment had a recidivism rate of 18 percent
over a four-year follow-up period, compared to a 43 percent
recidivism rate for the nonparticipating group of offenders. However, no positive effect of treatment was found in several
other quasi-experiments involving an institutional behavioral
program (Rice, Quinsey, and Harris, 1991) or a milieu therapy
approach in an institutional setting (Hanson, Steffy, and Gauthier,
1993).
Recently, Alexander (1999) conducted an analysis of a large
group of treatment outcome studies, encompassing nearly
11,000 sex offenders. In this study, data from 79 sex offender
treatment studies were combined and reviewed. Results
indicated that sex offenders who participated in relapse
prevention treatment programs had a combined rearrest
rate of 7.2 percent, compared to 17.6 percent for untreated
offenders. The overall rearrest rate for treated sex offenders
in this analysis was 13.2 percent. (Length of follow-up in this
analysis varied from less than one year to more than five
years. Most studies in this analysis indicated a three to
five year follow-up period.) The Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA)
has established a Collaborative Data Research Project with
the goals of defining standards for research on treatment,
summarizing existing research, and promoting high quality
evaluations. As part of this project, researchers are conducting
a meta-analysis of treatment studies. Included in the
meta-analysis are studies that compare treatment groups
with some form of a control group (average length of
follow-up in these studies was four to five years). Preliminary
findings indicate that the overall effect of treatment shows
reductions in both sexual recidivism, 10 percent of the
treatment subjects to 17 percent of the control group subjects,
and general recidivism, 32 percent of the treatment subjects
to 51 percent of the control group subjects (Hanson, 2000).
Center for Sex Offender Management
c/o Center for Effective Public Policy
8403 Colesville Road, Suite 720
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Tel: (301) 589-9383
Fax: (301) 589-3505
Email: cartermm@cepp.com
Web Site
For more information or questions about the web site, please contact our
Web Site Coordinator at http://AskCSOM@CSOM.org.
This information is only part of a larger report found at
http://www.csom.org/pubs/recidsexof.html |
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